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Thursday, June 26, 2008

New Rakeback Deals

Busy as bees at Poker-strategy.org . We have added several new rakeback deals that are worth mentioning here. I'll just give a quick list and benefits. If you are playing poker without rakeback, and you play any volume at all, you'd be surprised what you are missing out on. Good luck to folks who give these rakeback offers a shot!

Poker4Ever Rakeback is one of the best we've gotten a long time. Rakeback payments are weekly, paid every Monday. The rakeback rate is an above average 35%. Bonuses are not deducted from gross rake totals. Stats are available for P4E rakeback players right there in the poker room's software.

Habana Poker Rakeback is a new addition as well. Habana is one of our BOSS Rakeback deals (being on the Boss network). The most famous room on this network is Paradise Poker, so if you have a Paradise account without rakeback, you can sign up at Habana and play the same tables, and get 30% rakeback. Habana pays the rakeback totals directly to your player account on the 2nd of each month. Definitely another solid deal for rakeback hunters.

Poker4Ever is open to USA players!
Habana Poker is not open to USA players.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

7cs heads up - Importance of Patterns

There is no playbook for heads up poker, no matter what game. I've written some basic strategy on 7 card stud heads up poker, but there is so much more to it than that article, even though it is a long one and IMO has some good info for low limit heads up play.

Tonight I ran across a situation that I wanted to share because I think it really delves into how a heads up player needs to think, in order to see success.

I was playing greenmeans at the 1/2 7cs HU tables. He really didn't show a lot of weaknesses. He completed my bringin with Ace and King doorcards (in truth, he probably completed with any ace or king, even hidden). He bet his scary boards. He didn't get way out of line with weak hands. He didn't fold to a single bet on the river when the pot was large (not really much point in trying to bluff a missed draw against him). Blah blah blah... you get the picture.

After ~250 hands, I was +26.05 in less than an hour against him. That's a 5.2 BB/100 hands clip. I know, short term luck, yada yada, but I really think I would have cleaned him out had we played longer. The reason is that I picked up on a couple of exploitable patterns.

His first pattern was varying his forced bringin based on his hand strength. I'm not going to get into why this is generally a bad idea heads up. Just trust me... it is.

The most interesting pattern I found is a little deeper. As I noted earlier, he always completed with an ace or king doorcard. Obviously, he doesn't always have aces or kings. Early on, when I was dealt a small pair and he completed my bringin with an ace or king, I would limp raise him. If he just had the ace or king high, he would call. Then he'd call my bet on 4th and fold on 5th.

Ok....pretty boring right? But look how it can be exploited!!! Once I had established this as a pattern I could rely on, I could win 3 small bets almost EVERY time he was dealt an ace or king doorcard. It didn't matter if I had 444 or 462 rainbow. My 3 cards didn't matter. Here were the possibilities:

I bringin the half bet, he completes with an ace or king doorcard, I raise:

1. If he has nothing, he calls the raise (2 bets on 3rd). He calls 4th hoping to get some kind of value by 5th (another small bet). He folds on 5th with ace or king high. I win 3 small bets, regardless of my own holding.

2. He really has aces or kings and 3 bets. I fold. I lose 2 bets.

3. He calls my raise with ace or king high, then calls on 4th and 5th (meaning he's either picked up a draw, another pair, etc.) and I slow down and he wins showdown.

4. He calls my raise with ace or king high, then calls on 4th and 5th (again, meaning he has something, but not quite aces or kings), but I draw well myself and I win at showdown.

For simplicity sake, let's just say #3 and #4 will be roughly equal, that leaves us with figuring out the value of my losing 2 bets when he has the aces or kings he is representing vs. my winning 3 bets when he does not.

The odds against being dealt exactly AA or exactly KK are roughly 76:1 (according to my crappy math skills). That means if I did this EVERY time and he followed the same pattern every time, then I would win 76 x 3 bets that he had nothing for every 1 x 2 bets that I lost when he 3bet with real aces or kings.

You don't have to be a math geek to see the value there.

Gold mine right? Well...not really. This gent, as I noted was pretty decent. If a player is solid and you have to dig this deep to find exploitable patterns, you might be better off waiting on someone who will make more mistakes. I suspect that it wouldn't take many of these scenarios to occur before he would change up how he was playing to compensate. (What if he notices that I fold immediately when he 3 bets with his aces or kings? Now he can 3 bet even if all he has is ace or king high, I fold and now he's taking advantage of my pattern!)

What's my point? The key to heads up poker is identifying your opponents patterns. IMO, this goes for every poker game, not just 7c stud. Once you have established a pattern, it's just a matter of exploiting it and rake in the chips.

How about your own patterns? Pay attention to your own play, and try to avoid pattern ruts that you fall into. Better yet, establish an obvious pattern, when he picks up on it, exploit that. Here's an example. I complete with a lot of hands heads up. If I have nothing and he calls my completed bet on 3rd, I'll check and fold 4th. The next time I'm actually dealt my pair, say, JxJ, I'll complete his bringin, check 4th and then check raise him when he bets. Or maybe I'll wait 'till 5th for the check raise. Either way, it wins me some extra bets and confuses him as he can no longer count on the pattern he thought he'd picked up.

See how it works? Play fast and aggressive. Pick up their patterns. Setup false patterns/traps. Get 'em confused, and then tilted. Once they're tilted, they might as well mail you a check for their remaining balance.

Friday, June 20, 2008

CD Poker & TonyG

Just a heads up. We've added a couple of new sites to our bonus code list recently. I like to mention these when we get a great deal. These are bonus codes that carry extra value, well over the default bonus deals you get if you just go to the poker site.

The first is our Tony G Poker Coupon Bonus Code. The bonus code is TONYCASH and it gives you a 150% up to $400 bonus. That's more bonus dollars than you'll get if you go straight to TonyG. On top of that, you will also get a $50 instant bonus. So if you deposited $300, you'd get the max $400 pending bonus plus another $50 in your account that you can play with immediately. Instant + Pending bonus deals are... very rare.

The 2nd bonus we've added is our CD Poker Coupon Code Bonus. The bonus code for this one is TOPBONUS. You get 150% up to $600 matching deposit bonus, which is the highest bonus on the iPoker network to my knowledge. You will also get free entry into the monthly $10,000 VIP freeroll. Very good value on this bonus code as well.

Both of these sites are on the iPoker network. There are no rules against clearing them both. If you're bonus hunting, you can hit them both. Rooms on the iPoker network do not accept USA players unfortunately.

Once our legal situation is clarified over here, I'll have a lot of bonus clearing to do myself!

Monday, June 16, 2008

Mikey and Sheikhan exchange some words...

I know these guys crack on each other a lot on High Stakes Poker (GSN) and Poker After Dark, and sometimes it seems like good natured ribbing. I think this video shows their relationship is probably any thing but good natured.

For your viewing pleasure:

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

The Lord giveth. The wife taketh away.

That's a bit unfair for the title. We've got baby boy #2 due July 7th, and we're working furiously to get everything ready and it's costing us some extra $$. We're going to be able to save about $4k if we pay up front (we're self pay), so it's a worthy cause.

Bottom line is, I pulled $1025 from the roll. Total after AP rakebacks hit is around $470. *sigh*.

Ahh well... let's start building again. It makes the 2k by the end of the year more of a challenge. Maybe I should just say "2k profit" and count what I bring home rather than have a set goal to reach.

Annoys me a bit to keep robbing the bankroll. I'd really like to get over to FTP 3/6 stud since the game is pretty loose there. Ideally I'd like to take at least $1000 over there to play it comfortably, and at the same time leave $600 or so at Absolute since the 1/2 game is the only regular game with 2/4 in the mix every now and then and a rare 3/6.

Better hush and start playing. Diapers to buy, bankroll to build.

Saturday, June 07, 2008

MSOP Event #14 - Out in 122nd place.

*pukes*

Perpetual short stack. Dealt good cards, ran into better (KK vs. AA hidden, JJ vs. AA, etc). Still had close to 3k chips at the 250/500 level, which ain't much, but FTP's tourney structure sucks compared to Star's WCOOP. Everyone was short stacked at that level. The top stack at our table had 12k. That's like taking $24 bucks to a .50/$1 table...

At any rate, last hand I had 3k chips w/ 99 and a AQxx 4 flush on 5th, and got all the chips in vs a no pair, king high heart flush. He flushed, I didn't.

The buyin was $109, and I was playing a ring game at Absolute and finished +114 there, so I suppose you could say I'm break even for the 2 hours play.

Looking forward to WCOOP! I thought the FTP tourney would be interesting since it's a super stack (5k chips to start), but the ante's are always 20%+ of the small bet and a tiny forced bring in bet. It's like FTP's low limit games (1/2 and 2/4). The high ante, low bringin rewards folks who play any 3 because the initial pot is huge compared to the bringin you have to call. Routinely 4 and 5 guys to 4th street. That's wonderful if your big pairs hold up and your draws hit. Unfortunately that didn't happen for me.

I'm not saying I wouldn't play the 7cs events at Full Tilt again. I feel like I've got a better than average shot at cashing in them. But the tourney setup certainly makes them more of a crapshoot than say, the WCOOP which features double stack (3k chips) and very slowly increasing limits/antes.

Suggestion to any tourney directors who are reading (estimating zero) - bigger stacks, slower limits, 10% ante compared to the small bet. It'll make for a little bit longer of an event, but your skilled players (the ones who are most likely to drop $100+ on a buyin)will enjoy themselves much more, since it will truly be a skill based event and increase the likelihood that they play future 7cs events.

I don't mean this to be a cry post. Heck, I feel fine, even going out 122/159. I didn't make any serious mistakes when I look at the few hands that I took to showdown. I played as well as I could.

Maybe I shoulda just called for a new dealer?

Time for some pizza. :)

Friday, June 06, 2008

Nice 3/6 session...

Bankroll at $1450+ after a good couple of days, topped off by a great 2/4 session where ATL404 donated a good $140 or so to Dylan's college fund. (+200 for the session)

My BB/100 over 3.0 - Obviously on a good run. :)

+543 in May, in ring game play alone (not counting rakeback or bonus).
+459 in June, and we're not even through the first week. Here again, not counting rakeback or bonus.

If I keep getting to play 40 hours a month or so, the 2k should be a breeze, with proper bankroll management, etc etc... I doubt seriously I'll go above 3/6. The 3/6 game at Full Tilt is a pretty good one with a normal ante. The 5/10 at Stars can be juicy too, but with no rakeback, I'm probably going to just stick with FTP / AP.

Still no word back from AP/UB on propping. :( - I've been out of bonus for 2 weeks, and 100% rakeback or so woulda been nice as many 1/2, 2/4 and 3/6 tables as I've started.

Time for a milkshake, some PAD and bedtime.

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Bankroll Update

$1040 after tonight. Had it to $1080 last night after a great shorthanded session against my favorite HU 7 card stud opponent on Absolute Poker - Rolled. Poor guy... sometimes I just want to say "mistake #1 - always slow playing aces. Mistake #2 - ..." so on and so forth.

In all fairness, he's not that bad. Though the guy has a fish symbol on my PokerTracker, he's only slightly too loose and he's only slightly too passive. His two main mistakes are "can't let go of a pair" and tilt. Once he's tilted, just sit and wait for him to drop his bankroll in your lap.

Seriously, if he'd be a little more aggressive on 3rd (stop slow playing big pairs!), dump hands that he knows he's going steep uphill on, and step away from the table when he's been sucked out on a time or two, he'd be a solid player.

My luck, he'll google his AP nickname or TIGGERTHECAT and find this advice and spank me next session. :)

Do you ever find it hard to not help someone out who you are just beating into the ground or you can tell they're frustrated? I guess it's just the history teacher in me. It goes against common poker sense for sure.

So, halfway to the $2000 I was hoping to finish the year with so I could crank up Dylan's college fund. I'm happy. 7cs games at AP have been sparse this year with the main staple being 1/2, with a game at 2/4 and 3/6 every now and then.

I lost my hand histories when I reformatted my PC a couple months ago. My current poker tracker stats show +2.5 big bets per 100 hands, after ~10,000 hands (I know..small sample size, but bear with me). This is at 1/2 through 3/6. When I set it to just heads up, I'm roughly +6 big bets per 100 hands. I'm +5 BB/100 when I combine HU with 3 handed stats.

I need to start propping. :) I've emailed AP about it since my own account doesn't even get rakeback. We'll see what kind of reply we get.