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Friday, December 03, 2010

Sports Betting - I got smoked

So I was the first to lose my $100. Danno still has ~$50, and same for Bryan. I obviously did not follow my own bankroll management tips. After you get down to say, $50, then playing 5% per game is a whopping $2.50. Blah. I basically did a double or nothing strategy with my last $30 or so and lost.

That being said, I did learn a lot about odds, lines, and the sports betting industry in general. Fun stuff. I ended up loading some more cash on another sports site. (Carib Sports). The reason I didn't reload at Bodog is because they don't post their lines until Tuesday or later, and even then, they don't post lines for many games, no moneylines, etc. - It really bites to see a line that you feel you have a good edge, but you can't bet it because it's not listed. By the time Bodog lists it, the line has moved so that it's no longer a good bet.

The thinking is pretty simple. The sports book's goal is to have equal betting on both teams in the contest. So the opening line is set to do just that... induce betting on both sides. So if the game is a big mismatch in team talent or a very popular team vs an unknown, the line will usually be a bit inflated on the side of giving points to the underdog/unknown. If you can catch that line as soon as it comes out, you can usually take the underdog with points, and have a good shot at a winning bet.

Though sometimes the line can move favorably, in most cases this season, I would find myself annoyed at Bodog because by the time they had posted the game, the line had moved unfavorably, relative to the bet I wanted to make.

Anyway. Sports betting rocks. Maybe I'll get back to poker in 2011.