I'm not off my rocker. I'm just considering the idea of folding in a +EV situation, when the edge isn't huge in a tournament. In a recent article written for us by Learn Texas Holdem, they give an example of a time when folding might be a tactically solid play.
In the example, you have 4 left in a large tournament field where #3 pays significantly better than the #4 finisher. Your are short stack with 10k. The two ahead of you have 11k and 12k respectively and the chip leader has 20k. They all 3 go all in ahead of you, and you look down at AA.
In a cash game, this is an obvious push. But AA against 3 hands that show decent strength is probably only about a 55% favorite to win the hand. If you fold, there are several good results you can look forward to. The big stack wins, knocking both the two smaller stacks out, putting you to #2 and a huge jump in payout. The 12k stack winning bumps you to #3 at worst, and the 20k stack is now short stack with 8k. Finally, the worst result is the 11k player winning, but even then, the 12k stack is down to 2k and the large stack is at 9k. Here again, you've moved to #2 in chip position with a very very short stacked player in 4th.
So do you fold the AA? If you call and win, you'll have a massive chip lead of 40k, with two tiny stacks (1k and 2k), and the previous tall stack will be cut in half (10k). If you call and lose your virtual coin flip you're out with 4th place money.
What to do, what to do. My opinion is, you'd need to check out the difference between 2nd and 1st place money. If it was a huge skew towards the person who wins it all, then calling with AA is obviously the best decision. On the other hand, if #1, #2 and #3 all have pretty even payouts, with 4th getting little, then folding might be the best choice.
Really a tough question, and I suppose depends more on personality.
Check out the full Tactics vs. EV in Tournament Endgames.
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